3-5 August: IFN 2009 Issuers & Investors Asia Forum, Kuala Lumpur
9-10 September: Kurdistan Region Trade & Investment Summit, London
5 October: Doha Business Roundtable, Doha
11-14 October: Saudi Water and Power Forum, Jeddah
12 October: Euromoney Middle East Debt Markets Conference, Abu Dhabi
12-14 October: World Islamic Retail Banking, Dubai
12-15 October: Banking Outlook Middle East, Dubai
14-15 October: Unconventional Oil, London
14-15 October: Getenergy for Iraq, Istanbul
19-21 October: Middle East Investments Summit, Dubai
27–28 October: Gas to Liquids, London
27-29 October: Offshore Middle East 2009, Bahrain
23 November: The World in 2010 Executive Forum, Dubai
7-9 December: Iraq Petroleum, London
Briefings & Reports
Untitled Page
In addition to producing the flagship fortnightly Gulf States Newsletter, GSN’s team of experienced analysts also produce briefings and reports on a range of topics and issues that affect the region. Our expertise can be tapped by anyone and delivered in a range of formats. For more information contact Nick Carn. nick@gsn-online.com
Endorsements
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Professor Gerd Nonneman director Institute of Arab & Islamic Studies (IAIS), University of Exeter
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Stephen Day, consultant and former British ambassador
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José Silva Pereira general secretary Partex Oil and Gas
"Gulf States Newsletter provides a fund of information and insights for bankers and investors who are serious about doing business in the Gulf."
Francis Beddington, Banker and Economist
Middle East risk indicators – oil price upturn drives new optimism
Ratings downgrades continue to dog sovereign and corporate creditors world-wide. Belgian export credit agency ONDD recently downgraded 17 countries world-wide for political risk and 30 for commercial risk. Bahrain and Qatar went from category one to two (of seven) for political risk, mirroring the OECD Consensus. In the 30 commercial risk downgrades, the UAE moved from grade B to C.
Dubai was hit hardest of all GCC countries by capital flight and the late 2008/early 2009 downturn, but its bank markets are stabilising, allowing trade financiers to restore significant support for imports and re-exports. One banker told GSN it was “difficult to benchmark Dubai against other countries,” but UAE transactions may still be carrying “slightly higher” prices. His bank had identified Kuwait as “especially vulnerable” over the past year, while Saudi Arabia and other GCC markets had withstood much better.
Trade finance pricing moved up for country and bank counterparties as the credit crunch set in, but another Dubai-based banker said “we have subsequently seen prices settle back down, albeit a little higher than the pre-crisis level… about 10-15% higher than pre-crisis level.”
Country
Preferred payment terms
Coface grading
Moody’s sovereign rating
Fitch sovereign rating
Ducroire Delcredere short-term political risk rating
ONDD medium- to long-term political risk rating
Bahrain
OA
A3
A2
A
1
2
Iran
CIA
D
—
—
5
6
Iraq
CIA
D
—
—
6
7
Israel
OA
A4
A1
A
3
3
Jordan
OA
B
Ba2
—
2
5
Kuwait
OA
A2
Aa2
AA
2
2
Oman
OA
A3
A2
—
1
2
Palestine
CLC
—
—
—
7
7
Qatar
OA
A2
Aa2
—
1
2
Saudi Arabia
OA
A4
A1
AA–
1
2
Syria
ILC
C
—
—
4
6
Turkey
ILC
B
Ba3
BB–
3
4
UAE
OA
—
Aa2
—
2
2
Yemen
ILC
C
—
—
3
6
Key: ULC = Unconfirmed letter of credit.
ILC = Irrevocable letter of credit.
CIA = Cash in advance. OA = Open account
Source: Cross-border Information Ltd, Hastings
Stock Market
Index value
Index % change
Exchange rate
(Index)
(25 June 2009)
One week
Since 01.01.09
2008
Currency
£
$
€
¥ (x100)
Bahrain 1
1,590.57
-1.40
-11.84%
- 34.52
Dinar
0.6214
0.3770
0.5328
0.3900
Iran 2
9,471
1.30
9.42
- 11.10
Rial
16406.8
9955.00
14067.4
10298.5
Iraq 3
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
New Dinar
1903.56
1155.00
1,625.17
1194.85
Jordan 4
2,742.26
0.95
-0.59
- 24.94
Dinar
1.1662
0.7076
1.0000
0.0.7321
Kuwait 5
8,107.60
-0.40
4.18
- 38.03
Dinar
0.4735
0.2873
0.4060
0.2972
Oman 6
5,690.82
-0.08
4.59
- 39.78
Rial
0.6346
0.3851
0.5442
0.3983
Qatar 7
6,474.16
-2.79
-5.98
- 28.12
Rial
6.0012
3.6413
5.1455
3.7669
Saudi Arabia8
5,599.38
-0.71
16.58
- 56.49
Rial
6.1809
3.7503
5.2996
3.8797
UAE 9
2,671.29
1.66
11.77
- 47.49
Dirham
6.0533
3.6729
5.1902
3.7996
UAE 10
1,821.19
-2.04
11.30
- 72.42
Yemen
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Rial
334.185
202.770
286.534
209.766
1 Bahrain Stock Exchange - All Shares Index. 2 Tehran Stock Exchange – Tepix Index. 3 Iraq Stock Exchange – ISX Price Index. 4 Amman Stock Exchange Index.
5 Kuwait Stock Exchange Index. 6 Muscat Securities Market – MSM 30 Index. 7 Doha Securities Market – DSM 20 Index.
8 Tadawul All Shares Index (TASI) . 9 Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange Index. 10 Dubai Financial Market Index
n/a = data not available.
Sources: Cross-border Information, Hastings. Financial Times, London
