IRAQ

Iraq is years away from defending its airspace

Despite huge efforts to advance the capability of the Iraqi Air Force, it will be at least four years before an initial 18 F-16s will be operational, leaving Iraq exposed to Iran in the east and, more significantly, Israel in the west
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Advantage Erbil: ExxonMobil deal springs from new Iraqi tensions

ExxonMobil’s audacious six-block deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has plunged a dagger into the already uneasy peace between Arabs and Kurds, giving an immediate public relations boost to the headline-chasing KRG natural resources minister Ashti Hawrami and pouring further misery onto Baghdad’s embattled deputy prime minister for energy affairs Hussein Al-Shahristani.
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KUWAIT

Everyone’s a loser as Kuwait’s ‘Black Wednesday’ leaves opposition weaker and regime foundering

The storming of parliament has highlighted the extent of tensions within Kuwait’s malfunctioning political system, but rather than building momentum behind another Arab Spring revolution, it has left the parliamentary opposition weaker and the departure of prime minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammed a more distant prospect. Even so, with street protests and opposition from the ruling family’s Al-Salem branch, the Al-Jaber leadership faces a tough time
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More protests to come in Kuwait

While the opposition has been undermined in parliament, the government confronts a continuing challenge on the streets. Some 15,000 people rallied on 21 November, demanding the dissolution of parliament and a change in prime minister or his grilling on 29 November over corruption allegations.
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YEMEN

Saleh runs out of time and cash in Yemen

As GSN went to press, President Ali Abdullah Saleh had just signed an historic agreement in Riyadh which would see him cede formal power immediately and step down as head of state by the end of the year.
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Issue 912 - 11 November 2011

SAUDI ARABIA

The old guard reconfigures with Salman as defence minister and KBS as deputy

Al-Sultan scion maintains family’s hold on defence fief while the wider Sudeiri clan are confirmed as key players in the reshuffles following Prince Sultan’s death
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IRAN

How do you solve a problem like Iran?

It was hardly a surprise when the International Atomic Energy Agency said there was evidence that Iran was close to acquiring nuclear weapons, with the clandestine procurement of equipment and design information required to make them.
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IAEA report adds another weapon to anti-Iran arsenal

In the wake of the revelation of a plot to kill Saudi ambassador to Washington Adel Al-Jubeir, blamed on the Iranian Quds Force, there has been a marked escalation of rhetoric against Tehran, which reached fever-pitch ahead of the release of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s report on 8 November.
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UAE

UAE plants both feet firmly in anti-Iranian camp

As the UAE builds defence capabilities and US backing helps the region stand up to the Iranian threat, the possibility of an Emirati gambit in the Abu Musa and Tunb islands seems more credible
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Issue 911 – 28 October 2011

SAUDI ARABIA

As Sultan leaves the stage, the US-Saudi military relationship is set to grow closer

Despite the cooling of relations after 9/11, the Kingdom has worked hard to maintain close security ties to the US, and mutual hostility towards Iran will further deepen the relationship
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REGION

Spotlight on Middle East arms sale unlikely to bring meaningful change

Criticism surrounding the $53m US deal to sell armoured vehicles and military equipment to Bahrain has grabbed the headlines, but it is a drop in the ocean in terms of US arms exports. Postponement of the deal until the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry reports its findings into human rights abuses in the country during the recent unrest, now due on 23 November, is a reminder of the conflicting interests of western governments in their dealings with the Middle East.
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Issue 910 – 14 October 2011

SAUDI ARABIA/IRAN

Saudi Arabia and Iran trade accusations against a backdrop of sectarian strife

The last few weeks has seen a marked escalation in Saudi-Iranian tension. Regionally the two powers are facing off in Syria, while Riyadh has accused Iran of meddling in its eastern region. The US has revealed dramatic details of a plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington Adel Al-Jubair (see box, below), once again pointing the finger at Iran. But is it just a war of words and accusations, or is there more at play?
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Did Iran hatch DC’s 'bonkers' bomb plot?

The astonishing allegation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was behind a plot to kill Saudi ambassador to Washington Adel Al-Jubeir has left many analysts baffled and the Western media scrambling for an explanation.  One US-based analyst called it “just bonkers”.
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Missile threat to Saudi Arabia ‘overstated’

The missile threat posed to the Gulf region from Iran is “overstated”, according to a paper entitled A Crude Threat: The Limits of an Iranian Missile Campaign against Saudi Arabian Oil, published in the Harvard University-based International Security journal.
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REGION

Gulf states unprepared for Iranian nuclear calamity

The activation of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant in September, followed by the publication of excerpts from an allegedly leaked  document questioning its safety, have increased fears of a large scale calamity in the Gulf.  Some of these fears may be exaggerated, but a catalogue of questionable engineering, rumours of operational problems and Iran’s refusal to share information with its neighbours have fed concerns
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YEMEN

Saudi Arabia takes Al-Houthi rebellion off beleaguered Saleh regime’s hands

With the Yemeni military preoccupied by domestic power plays, Saudi Arabia is looking to other local proxies – some linked to ultra-radical Islamists – to help contain the perceived Al-Houthi threat to the Kingdom’s security.  But it is increasingly likely that the Saudi military will again engage directly in northern Yemen, with talk of revenge as well as containment following the Houthi’s 2009 victory the last time Riyadh intervened
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Conflict in northern Yemen: Risks to Sanaa, Saudi Arabia and the US

If the Houthi rebellion flares up into a sixth major round of fighting, Saudi Arabia will probably be a combatant almost from the outset (see main article).  Initially Saudi support would probably be low visibility, including a surge or money, equipment and air support.
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Issue 909 - 30 September 2011

QATAR

Qatar’s risky gamble in Libya is part of long-term strategy to become master of its own destiny 

Understanding the motivations of the emirate’s rulers has long been a guessing game for outsiders, but the latest move is a logical next step in efforts to assert itself on the regional and international stage
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YEMEN

Sustained insurgency looms as Sanaa government loses Yemen’s tribal hinterlands

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is exploiting uprisings in the north, south and centre of the country to pursue its stated aim of a sharia caliphate, putting the US in an increasingly perilous situation
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Riyadh plays a waiting game on Yemen

The return of President Ali Abdullah Saleh to Sanaa on 23 September displayed the Yemeni leader’s autonomy from Saudi and US influence, despite the deep ties he shares with both
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Issue 908 – 16 September 2011