GSN’s team of experienced analysts are often called on by governments and their agencies, financial institutions, and energy companies to comment on developments in the Gulf region. Our analysts are available for private briefings (either by telephone or in person) and can produce tailored reports and research on a range of topics and issues. For more information contact Mark Ford. Email: mark@cbi-publishing.com
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Following its support for the revolutions in Libya and Egypt – both financial and through the ‘soft power’ of Al-Jazeera television – Qatar now appears to be leading the Arab consensus against the regime of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria (GSN 911/1, 909/1).
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A restive Eastern Province and the government’s seemingly empty efforts to address the deteriorating sectarian situation could further fuel the frustrations of a marginalised and radicalised element of the Shia population
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Saudi Arabia frequently blames Iran for unrest in Shia populations in the region. In early September, the Ministry of Interior (MoI) was quick to denounce unrest in the oil-rich Eastern Province as the work of “instigators of sedition” working at the behest of a foreign country and vowed to strike those involved “with an iron fist”.
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Jeddah residents need no longer fear the rain. On 30 November, following round-the-clock construction for 110 days, Mecca governor Prince Khalid Al-Faisal officially opened 14 flood defence projects in the districts most badly affected in 2009 and 2011.
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Little more than a week after clashes in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, Amnesty International (AI) released an investigative report, Saudi Arabia: Repression in the name of security, which accuses the government of systematically suppressing political opposition and detaining hundreds of people solely for peacefully voicing their rights.
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Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Jaber Al-Sabah has appointed outgoing defence minister and deputy premier Sheikh Jaber Mubarak Al-Sabah as prime minister. The appointment, on 30 November, came just two days after the government of Sheikh Nasser Mohammed Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah resigned due to pressure from the opposition, which had refused to co-operate. Sheikh Jaber, who has been in the cabinet since 2001 and is a senior member of the ruling family, is expected to soon form a new government. It will be Kuwait’s eighth cabinet since February 2006.
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Bold stands on Libya and Syria could herald the beginning of a new era for the Arab League – and the Gulf states, led by Qatar, are now in the driving seat
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Qatar’s stand on Syria also appears to be creating friction outside the Arab world, with Moscow’s recent downgrading of diplomatic relations being linked to the two nations’ differing approaches to Damascus. On 29 November, Russian ambassador to Qatar Vladimir Titorenko was returning to Doha from Jordan when a dispute apparently broke out over the ambassador’s diplomatic bag.
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Confronted with another ratcheting up of international and regional pressure, Tehran has a number of proxy conflicts in which it can make life uncomfortable for its enemies – and President Ahmadinejad and his allies seem determined to flex their muscles over neighbouring Iraq as the US prepares for its end-year military withdrawal
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In the wake of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry (BICI) report into human rights abuses during the government’s crackdown on protesters, Bahrain has entered a critical phase. The leadership’s actions over the coming weeks have the potential to placate or fire up the downtrodden Shia population. So far, little appears to have changed. King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa has removed Sheikh Khalifa Bin Abdullah Al-Khalifa, a former ambassador to London, from his role as head of the much-feared National Security Agency, but the decision to keep him in a senior security role (as national security adviser with ministerial rank and secretary-general of the Supreme Defence Council) negates any goodwill that might have been gained from the move.
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Everyone’s a loser as Kuwait’s ‘Black Wednesday’ leaves opposition weaker and regime foundering
The storming of parliament has highlighted the extent of tensions within Kuwait’s malfunctioning political system, but rather than building momentum behind another Arab Spring revolution, it has left the parliamentary opposition weaker and the departure of prime minister Sheikh Nasser Mohammed a more distant prospect. Even so, with street protests and opposition from the ruling family’s Al-Salem branch, the Al-Jaber leadership faces a tough time
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While the opposition has been undermined in parliament, the government confronts a continuing challenge on the streets. Some 15,000 people rallied on 21 November, demanding the dissolution of parliament and a change in prime minister or his grilling on 29 November over corruption allegations.
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As GSN went to press, President Ali Abdullah Saleh had just signed an historic agreement in Riyadh which would see him cede formal power immediately and step down as head of state by the end of the year.
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Alwaleed Bin Talal is launching a 24-hour news channel with the same talk of ‘press freedom’ that Al-Jazeera pioneered but with more potential political pitfalls than the Qatari-owned channel faced. The station will probably be based in Bahrain or Dubai, but Alwaleed is giving highest priority to building an audience in his national market
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It remains to be seen whether Alarab will succeed where others have failed. Talk of “pushing the boundaries” by Alarab’s founder general manager Jamal Khashoggi, a distinguished Saudi liberal journalist, is reminiscent of the language used by former Daily Telegraph editor Martin Newland when he left the UK to set up The National in Abu Dhabi in 2008.
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Bahrain is looking to expand its media influence and is lobbying heavily for Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal’s new Alarab channel to be based in Manama, seeing it as a potential job creator that could help boost the economy.
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Prince Talal Bin Abdelaziz, an outspoken half-brother of King Abdullah, has resigned from the Allegiance Council, the body set up in 2006 to decide on succession issues in the Kingdom.
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The much-anticipated Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry’s report into human rights abuses in the country since February contained few major surprises, but acknowledged systematic abuses and presented an important opportunity for change.
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ExxonMobil’s audacious six-block deal with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has plunged a dagger into the already uneasy peace between Arabs and Kurds, giving an immediate public relations boost to the headline-chasing KRG natural resources minister Ashti Hawrami and pouring further misery onto Baghdad’s embattled deputy prime minister for energy affairs Hussein Al-Shahristani.
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Issue 912 - 11 November 2011
SAUDI ARABIA
The old guard reconfigures with Salman as defence minister and KBS as deputy
Al-Sultan scion maintains family’s hold on defence fief while the wider Sudeiri clan are confirmed as key players in the reshuffles following Prince Sultan’s death
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Al-Nayef influence and interests continue their ascent in Al-Saud pecking order
The Al-Nayef are consolidating their power with Prince Nayef Bin Abdelaziz now anointed crown prince and thus heir apparent to the Saudi throne. The 5 November Royal Order reshuffling key posts appointed Prince Saud Bin Nayef Bin Abdelaziz to support his father as head of the Crown Prince’s Court and special adviser to the crown prince (with ministerial rank).
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IRAN
How do you solve a problem like Iran?
It was hardly a surprise when the International Atomic Energy Agency said there was evidence that Iran was close to acquiring nuclear weapons, with the clandestine procurement of equipment and design information required to make them.
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KUWAIT
Public sector strikes add to pressures on Kuwait
With the government weakened by a corruption scandal and growing opposition, thousands of public sector employees have taken to the streets to demand higher wages and continued state subsidies
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Emir Sheikh Sabah in crisis talks
A lengthy meeting between Emir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah and opposition MPs on 1 November focused on their concerns over the ability of the prime minister and government to run the country.
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UAE
Activists ‘denied due process’
A coalition of seven human rights groups has shed light on some of the inflammatory statements that led to the prosecution of five activists on charges that include threatening state security, as it criticised the trial for being “fundamentally unfair”. Blogger and human rights activist Ahmed Mansoor Ali Abdullah Al-Abd Al-Shehi, economics professor Nasser Ahmed Khalfan Bin Ghaith, and political activists Fahad Salim Dalk, Hassan Ali Al-Khamis and Ahmed Abdelkhaleq have been on trial in the State Security Court in Abu Dhabi since July (GSN 899/1). A verdict is expected on 27 November.
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UAE plants both feet firmly in anti-Iranian camp
As the UAE builds defence capabilities and US backing helps the region stand up to the Iranian threat, the possibility of an Emirati gambit in the Abu Musa and Tunb islands seems more credible
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QATAR
Arab Spring gives impetus to revival of Qatar’s democratic commitment
Qatar has at last announced plans for elections in 2013, nine years after a new constitution granted legislative powers to a semi-elected Majlis Al-Shura (Consultative Council). Under the 2003 constitution, 30 of the Shura’s 45 members will be elected for four-year terms; they will have the right to propose laws, approve the state budget and question the prime minister and ministers (GSN 708/10, 690/6, 648/7). The remaining 15 members will be appointed. Laws must be endorsed by the emir, but in a significant step he must approve a law if it is sent back to him a second time by the Shura with two-thirds majority support. No-confidence motions can be moved against a minister with the signature of at least 15 Shura members and carried with a two-thirds majority.
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Issue 911 - 28 October 2011
SAUDI ARABIA
Death of Saudi crown prince and King Abdullah’s health issues highlight downside of gerontocracy
Sultan died at the age of 80, Abdullah is in his late 80s and the expected heir, Nayef, is 77. A jump to a younger-generation royal is seen as unlikely while there are suitable Ibn Saud sons alive, but this could mean there is yet another succession changeover sooner rather than later
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Prince Nayef: conservative or pragmatist?
As GSN went to press, the name of the new crown prince had still not been announced. But most speculation centres on the experienced interior minister Prince Nayef, who was born in 1933 and is a half-brother of the King.
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As Sultan leaves the stage, the US-Saudi military relationship is set to grow closer
Despite the cooling of relations after 9/11, the Kingdom has worked hard to maintain close security ties to the US, and mutual hostility towards Iran will further deepen the relationship
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OMAN
Oman elections see higher turnout and more candidates, but tribal affiliations remain
The election of three men who took part in protests to the Majlis Al-Shura might reflect the electorate’s hopes for political reform, but critics believe the system remains an ‘autocratic monarchy with a democratic facade’
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Woman elected to Oman’s Majlis Al-Shura
Nema Al-Busaidi (Seeb) was the only one of 77 female candidates elected to the Majlis Al-Shura in the October elections. The government may well be disappointed, but it is an improvement on 2007, when 20 women stood but were unsuccessful.
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BAHRAIN
Bahrain government employs army of lobbyists to improve image
Bahrain is scrambling to maintain a respectable media image and stave off potential damage to delicate arms deals and trade agreements in the wake of the Arab spring. Heading off a backlash against the US’ $53m deal to sell missiles, military vehicles, equipment and training to the kingdom was presumably on the agenda of foreign minister Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa when he visited Washington in late October. Behind the scenes, the publicists have whirred into action.
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Liliane Khalil and Task Consultancy
One of the most intriguing stories of Bahrain’s public relations activities is that of Liliane Khalil. The ‘journalist’, who began writing at the beginning of the Arab Spring, contributed to Egyptian news site Bikya Masr and the notorious and now shut Bahrain Independent, where her ‘exposés’ included an article on the Bahrain Centre for Human Rights’ links to “Iranian-backed terrorist groups”.
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UAE
Abu Dhabi: Shifting sands of succession and politics
The health of UAE president and Abu Dhabi ruler Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan has long been the subject of speculation – he was abroad last year for medical treatment in a Swiss clinic (GSN 883/3). He has also never been the most charismatic of world leaders, usually only appearing in the press after sending cables of condolences/congratulations or departing for his autumn/winter private hunting trips in Kazakhstan. Since assuming the leadership of the seven emirates federation in 2004, he has created hardly a ripple on the world stage. Yet there is strong leadership: the federation is led by vice-president, prime minister and ruler of Dubai Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Nahyan (MBR), while Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan (MBZ) controls most aspects of the wealthiest emirate’s government.
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REGION
Transition in Libya challenges Gulf leaders
While Qatar basks in the glory of its successful involvement in the campaign to bring an end to Colonel Muammar Qadhafi’s rule, the big challenge for the emirate’s leadership may yet be to come.
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Spotlight on Middle East arms sale unlikely to bring meaningful change
Criticism surrounding the $53m US deal to sell armoured vehicles and military equipment to Bahrain has grabbed the headlines, but it is a drop in the ocean in terms of US arms exports. Postponement of the deal until the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry reports its findings into human rights abuses in the country during the recent unrest, now due on 23 November, is a reminder of the conflicting interests of western governments in their dealings with the Middle East. The postponement is an easy enough act of appeasement, and does not change the fact that it remains in the US’ interest to do everything to maintain the stability of the Fifth Fleet base in Manama, home to the US Navy’s maritime security operations in the Gulf and an asset that will become of increasing strategic importance following the withdrawal of troops from Iraq.
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Issue 910 – 14 October 2011
Saudi Arabia and Iran trade accusations against a backdrop of sectarian strife
The last few weeks has seen a marked escalation in Saudi-Iranian tension. Regionally the two powers are facing off in Syria, while Riyadh has accused Iran of meddling in its eastern region. The US has revealed dramatic details of a plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington Adel Al-Jubair (see box, below), once again pointing the finger at Iran. But is it just a war of words and accusations, or is there more at play?
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Did Iran hatch DC’s 'bonkers' bomb plot?
The astonishing allegation that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was behind a plot to kill Saudi ambassador to Washington Adel Al-Jubeir has left many analysts baffled and the Western media scrambling for an explanation. One US-based analyst called it “just bonkers”.
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Confusion over cleric Al-Hudaifi’s position
Since the unrest in Awamiyah descended into street skirmishes which injured 11 members of the security forces, Saudi newspaper editorials and sermons have carried the familiar veiled threats and insults towards the Kingdom’s Shia community. A sermon at the Al-Masjid Al-Nabawi in Medina has drawn particular ire – and it is rumoured the chief imam at the mosque has been removed from his position.
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Missile threat to Saudi Arabia ‘overstated’
The missile threat posed to the Gulf region from Iran is “overstated”, according to a paper entitled A Crude Threat: The Limits of an Iranian Missile Campaign against Saudi Arabian Oil, published in the Harvard University-based International Security journal.
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Shedding light on the distribution of royal wealth in Saudi Arabia
Confronted with long-term concerns over the budget’s ability to support such huge levels of public spending (GSN 906/12), and more immediate criticism over governance issues – highlighted by new reports of corruption linked to subsidiaries of European aerospace giant EADS – how wealth is shared out in Saudi Arabia is a hot issue that will not go away, with the ‘Arab Spring’ adding urgency to complaints that many citizens are excluded from jobs and social benefits. The Kingdom’s vast disparities of wealth are not a new story, as shown by the hundreds of cables from the US embassy in Riyadh leaked to WikiLeaks. One dispatch which has attracted the most interest is entitled Saudi Royal Wealth: Where Do They Get All That Money?
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REGION
Switzerland no longer quite so neutral, positions itself as a player in Middle East disputes
Over the past year Swiss foreign policy towards the Middle East has shifted away from the country’s long-held adherence to neutrality towards positions that fall more into line with the wider Western camp
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Gulf states unprepared for Iranian nuclear calamity
The activation of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant in September, followed by the publication of excerpts from an allegedly leaked document questioning its safety, have increased fears of a large scale calamity in the Gulf. Some of these fears may be exaggerated, but a catalogue of questionable engineering, rumours of operational problems and Iran’s refusal to share information with its neighbours have fed concerns
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SUCCESSION IN QATAR
Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani: heir apparent
Emir Sheikh Hamad’s fourth son Sheikh Tamim was appointed heir apparent in an August 2003 move, when he replaced his older full brother Sheikh Jassim (GSN 716/6). The changeover was widely regarded as sensible – the laid-back Jassim, who was seen as having little political ambition, had been a stopgap until Tamim had finished his education and gained more experience in high-level politics. There were two even older brothers, Mishaal and Fahd, by the emir’s first wife Sheikha Mariam Bint Mohammed Al-Thani but they were also jumped over in favour of Sheikh Tamim.
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YEMEN
Saudi Arabia takes Al-Houthi rebellion off beleaguered Saleh regime’s hands
With the Yemeni military preoccupied by domestic power plays, Saudi Arabia is looking to other local proxies – some linked to ultra-radical Islamists – to help contain the perceived Al-Houthi threat to the Kingdom’s security. But it is increasingly likely that the Saudi military will again engage directly in northern Yemen, with talk of revenge as well as containment following the Houthi’s 2009 victory the last time Riyadh intervened
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Conflict in northern Yemen: Risks to Sanaa, Saudi Arabia and the US
If the Houthi rebellion flares up into a sixth major round of fighting, Saudi Arabia will probably be a combatant almost from the outset (see main article). Initially Saudi support would probably be low visibility, including a surge or money, equipment and air support.
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Issue 909 - 30 September 2011
QATAR
Qatar’s risky gamble in Libya is part of long-term strategy to become master of its own destiny
Understanding the motivations of the emirate’s rulers has long been a guessing game for outsiders, but the latest move is a logical next step in efforts to assert itself on the regional and international stage
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Libyan NTC and tribal links to Doha
Qatar’s strategy is more wide-ranging than simply backing Islamists in Libya and elsewhere. It has also developed strong links with secular elements in the National Transitional Council (NTC) – notably with interim finance and oil minister Ali Tarhouni, perhaps the most high-profile representative of the secular wing of the NTC.
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Reshuffle and resignation spark speculation over Doha’s plans
A mini cabinet reshuffle and the resignation of Wadah Khanfar as director general of satellite channel Al-Jazeera after eight years at the helm – both on the same day – has caused much discussion among Qatar watchers used to a relatively quiet politcal scene.
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IRAQI KURDISTAN
KRG opens contracts to scrutiny
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has defied Baghdad and surprised analysts by publishing every production-sharing contract (PSC) it has signed since 2004. The cache of 172 documents covering 42 agreements includes amendments and additions. Erbil has long resisted pressure to open its PSCs to scrutiny, but appears to have done so now to try to gain a tactical advantage in the dispute over the new hydrocarbons law.
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SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi women get the vote but still have few rights
King Abdullah’s decision to give women the vote in municipal polls had been on the cards for months, but allowing women to stand as municipal candidates and be appointed to the Majlis Al-Shura surprised many
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YEMEN
Sustained insurgency looms as Sanaa government loses Yemen’s tribal hinterlands
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is exploiting uprisings in the north, south and centre of the country to pursue its stated aim of a sharia caliphate, putting the US in an increasingly perilous situation
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Riyadh plays a waiting game on Yemen
The return of President Ali Abdullah Saleh to Sanaa on 23 September displayed the Yemeni leader’s autonomy from Saudi and US influence, despite the deep ties he shares with both
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UAE
Tribal voting and low turnout dents ‘democratic experiment’
With the fervour of the Arab Spring on its doorstep, one might have expected the democratic spirit to have rubbed off on the UAE, with those able to vote in its second ever election on 24 September taking the opportunity to elect representatives for the Federal National Council (FNC).
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OMAN
Oman looks to cement its place as the Switzerland of the region
Switzerland, Iraq and, bizarrely, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and Hollywood actor Sean Penn were among those credited with helping to secure the release of the US citizens who spent two years behind bars in Tehran on spying charges. But when Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer touched down in Muscat, Fattal said: “Our deepest gratitude goes toward his majesty Sultan Qaboos [Bin Said Al-Said] of Oman for obtaining our release.”
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Issue 908 - 16 September 2011
REGIONAL
Gulf states turn their back on Assad regime as Syria passes the point of no return
Despite international condemnation, continued street protests and sanctions, combined with escalating economic problems, Bashar Al-Assad’s government has dug in as the Syrian uprising pushes on into its sixth month. But the signs are that Assad’s hold on power is tenuous and Gulf states have revised their policies as a consequence
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Syria crisis ramps up pressure on Gulf states
However the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s government eventually comes about, Syria’s neighbours in the region have varying degrees of concern about the power structure that will emerge. The region is fairly insulated from a post-Qadhafi Libya, but the make-up of a post-Assad Syria is far more strategically important to its neighbours, with the potential to drastically shift the balance of power in the region.
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UAE
Two cheers for Emirati elections
The United Arab Emirates will see a hugely increased vote when its second ever elections to choose members of the Federal National Council (FNC) take place on 24 September. The expansion of the electorate has been generally welcomed, opening the way for 468 candidates to compete for 20 of the 40 seats on the consultative body. The other 20 members are appointed.
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IRAN/IRAQ
Iraq attempts to deal with Iran border issues
There are a number of difficulties still to overcome, but the neighbours finally appear to have made progress in efforts to settle long-running border disputes and assign landmarks
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Allegations of trickery over hydrocarbons law heralds new Erbil-Baghdad stalemate
Rival drafts of a new hydrocarbons law are at the heart of a dispute between Erbil and Baghdad after Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki called a meeting to discusss proposals when most Kurdish members were absent
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SAUDI ARABIA
Najran sees fruits of investment
Saudi officials, including General Authority of Civil Aviation president Faisal Al-Sugair and Najran governor Prince Mishaal Bin Abdullah Bin Abdelaziz, have visited the new SR400m ($106.6m) Najran regional airport where Saudi Arabian Airlines will shift its operations on 18 September.
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The Saudi-US defence relationship is as strong as ever after wobble in wake of 9/11 attacks
A $60bn arms deal, the single largest in Middle East history, has sealed an enduring partnership and seen off competition from the UK and Europe
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Issue 907 - 2 September 2011
Qatar and Libya open a new geopolitical axis in North Africa
The wide-ranging roles played by Gulf states in supporting the uprising against Muammar Qadhafi reveals a new regional diplomatic axis at work. The influence of Qatar and other NTC allies will continue to be felt as Libya remakes itself following Tripoli’s fall to the rebels, with Islamist politicians expected to play a prominent part
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QATAR/ISRAEL
Relations deteriorate further
Qatar’s role in the preparation of Palestine’s formal UN bid for statehood, and its continued support of Hamas, has caused its once cordial, if low-key, relations with Israel to deteriorate beyond repair. A confidential Israeli Foreign Ministry report outlines the government’s plan to sever all remaining ties with Doha and lists a series of punitive measures against it, according to an article in the Hebrew-language daily Maariv on 25 August.
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SYRIA
Syrian crisis enables GCC states to reconfigure regional alliances
Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have all condemned the crackdown on opposition protesters in Syria. For Riyadh in particular, the crisis has thrown up the opportunity to damage Iranian influence in the region
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Syrian protesters arrested in Riyadh
Some 164 Syrian expatriates who rallied against violence in their home country were arrested in August for violating a Saudi ban on protest.
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BAHRAIN
Bahrain commission chief’s comments raise questions over impartiality of inquiry
The storm over comments made by the chair of the body set up to investigate human rights abuses since February, has cast doubts over its credibility. Some observers believe this could work against the interests of the king, who may have a vested interest in the panel digging deep and its findings being deemed credible
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